Explorations of Knowledge-Seeking by Questioning Published: April 08, Jaakko Hintikka, Socratic Epistemology: Reviewed by Vincent F. Jaakko Hintikka has surely committed his thoughts on epistemology to print many times before but this is the first time Hintikka literally pieces together the new story on how epistemic logic hooks up with the more classical epistemological issues. The book offers novel and provocative views on a wide variety of classics ranging from the notions of knowledge and belief, the apriori, abduction, inference and explanation just to mention a few. While examining these key concepts Hintikka simultaneously takes critical stock of contemporary epistemology.
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Related fields[ edit ] Chronology is the science of locating historical events in time. It relies upon chronometry , which is also known as timekeeping, and historiography , which examines the writing of history and the use of historical methods. Radiocarbon dating estimates the age of formerly living things by measuring the proportion of carbon isotope in their carbon content. Dendrochronology estimates the age of trees by correlation of the various growth rings in their wood to known year-by-year reference sequences in the region to reflect year-to-year climatic variation.
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Posted on April 13, by The Physicist One of the original questions was: A basic rule of logic is that something cannot contradict itself. It is impossible for P to be true and not true. Basically the multiple states of a single atom decayed and not decayed causes a cat to be in multiple states living and dead. To see the difference, find a calm, reasonable person and talk to them, and then this is more difficult find a professional logician and try to talk to them.
Talking to professional Logicians:
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He speaks of the Pauline conversion that Bayesians typically undergo: The answer, as it turns out, is both stunningly simple and infinitely complex. Not until after did an entry appear for Bayes in the Encyclopaedia Britannica, and even then its details were enigmatically sparse. Almost nothing is known for certain about the man whose speciality was uncertainty; even his birth year is subject to debate it could be or
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Mon, 17 Apr Your comments on Bayesian inference are reasonable, and certainly comments like these have been made before. Of course, many people are affronted, and perhaps rightly so, by the inclusion of so-called personal beliefs the prior into a statistical analysis. One of the classic Bayesian retorts to this is roughly “well, where do you think the rest of the model ingredients to an analysis come from?
This is true I think in virtually any branch of science. Whatever manner the researcher comes up with a model or theory, in the end subjective choices made on the basis of personal beliefs guide these choices. Science deals with this subjectivity by requiring that the model ingredients be tested against real data. In statistics this is roughly what we call model checking, and it applies equally well to frequentist statistical methods as it does to Bayesian methods.
By the way, model checking never says an analysis is right, only that it doesn’t seem to be wrong. Still, this is not an argument in favour of Bayesian methods.
The version of the rmarkdown package used to make this document is 1. The version of the knitr package used to make this document is 1. The version of the mcmc package used to make this document is 0. The version of the KernSmooth package used to make this document is 2.
First, a brief recap. Radiocarbon dating involves determining the radiocarbon age of (a sample from) an artefact and then converting that determination to an estimate of the true calendar age t, using a highly nonlinear calibration curve. It is this nonlinearity that causes the difficulties I focussed on.
Edit Unlike chronometry i. A chronology may be either relative —that is, locating related events relative to each other—or absolute —locating these events to specific dates in a Chronological Era. In that these dates are themselves events, the difference between the two blurs a little: Even this distinction may be blurred by use of different calendars ; in Judeo-Christian cultures, historical dates in an absolute chronology are understood to be referred to the Christian era in combination with the Gregorian calendar.
For example during eight centuries the calendar belonging to the Christian era , which era was taken in use in the eighth century by Bede , was the Julian calendar , but after the year it was the Gregorian calendar. Dionysius Exiguus about the year was the founder of that era, which is nowadays the most widespread dating system on earth. Ten centuries after Bede the French astronomers Philippe de la Hire in the year en Jacques Cassini in the year , purely in order to simplify certain calculations, put the Julian Dating System proposed in the year by Joseph Scaliger and with it an astronomical era into use which contains a leap year zero, which the year 1 AD precedes but does not exactly coincide with the year 1 BC.
Astronomers never proposed seriously to replace our era with their astronomical era which for that matter coincides exactly with the Christian era where it concerns the calendar years after the year 4. Other familiar chronological subjects are for example: Subjects of the Christian chronology are for example: Dionysius Exiguus’ Easter table , Paschal full moon , lunar cycle , solar cycle , easter cycle , lunar phase number , millennium question.
In the absence of written history, with its chronicles and king lists , late 19th century archaeologists found that they could develop relative chronologies based on pottery techniques and styles. In the field of Egyptology , William Flinders Petrie pioneered sequence dating to penetrate pre-dynastic Neolithic times, using groups of contemporary artefacts deposited together at a single time in graves and working backwards methodically from the earliest historical phases of Egypt.
Compare the American technique of Seriation.
Chronology : definition of Chronology and synonyms of Chronology (English)
Baca dalam bahasa lain Kronologi Kronologi adalah istilah yang artinya diambil dari bahasa Yunani chronos yang artinya waktu dan -logi yang artinya ilmu maka disimpulkan kronologi adalah ilmu yang mempelajari waktu atau sebuah kejadian pada waktu tertentu. Adapun kronologi digunakan dan bermanfaat pada sebuah kejadian baik kriminal maupun nonkriminal. Kronologi sering dipakai para badan hukum untuk mengetahui kapan dan persisnya suatu kejadian atau tindak pidana terjadi.
Referensi Sunting Hegewisch, D.
An awesome feature of Bayesian inference is that we can repeat this process as we get yet more evidence, using the posterior probability from our last step as the new prior probability.
The frequentist approach on the other hand is a more recent innovation and derives from the uncomfortable marriage of methodologies developed by the Neyman-Pearson-Wald school hypothesis testing and the Fisherian school everything else. While there are fundamental differences in the Bayesian and frequentist approaches that are difficult to reconcile, most statisticians treat them as just two options on a menu and are willing to use the tools they offer without necessarily embracing the accompanying baggage.
The history of Bayesian statistics began in with a paper written by Thomas Bayes in which he outlined a formula that has come to be called Bayes rule. In the early s the frequentists Fisher, Neyman, and Pearson completely trashed the Bayesian approach, after which it temporarily slipped into obscurity and all focus shifted to frequentist methods. Bayesian methods experienced a revival in the early s so much so that Bayesian approaches are now the hottest area of modern statistics.
While there has been considerable rancor in the literature particularly among scientists with regard to these two approaches, I think it is fair to say that Bayesian inference has always been recognized as being the more legitimate approach. Because Bayesian inference was difficult to carry out except in a few fairly artificial cases, the frequentist approach has held sway. Except for a few universities that have built their reputation on being Bayesian hotbeds, Duke, for example , most statistics departments have tended to include only token representatives of the Bayesian viewpoint among their faculty.
This situation dramatically changed about 15 years ago. Using methodologies originally developed by physicists, Bayesian inference is now easy to do. Furthermore Bayesian methods are able to solve problems that are currently impossible for the frequentist to solve. This has generated a great interest in Bayesian statistics among scientists in general.
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Especially in its concessionary form, the reciprocation rule often produces a yes response to a request that otherwise would surely have been refused. I hope that the next time you come across a situation where you feel the need to return a favor, you will think twice about the possible consequences of accepting it in the first place. You may think, for example, that someone offering you a free pen will not influence you at all, but there is an entire human history arguing otherwise.
Ego is the Enemy: It takes a special kind of humility to grasp that you know less, even as you know and grasp more and more. Do you know how you can tell when someone is truly humble? The solution is as straightforward as it is initially uncomfortable: Pick up a book on a topic you know next to nothing about.
DATING FOR BAYESIANS: Here’s How To Use Statistics To Improve Your Love Life
I recommend the essay below if you are interested in the argument between frequentists objectivists and Bayesians subjectivists. I never knew Freedman, but based on his writings I think I would have liked him very much — he was clearly an independent thinker: I wish I understood better some of the foundational questions mentioned below. In the limit of infinite data will two Bayesians always agree, regardless of priors?
People go on dates mainly to see if they click with each other, and to figure out if there is any potential for a liaison or a relationship. Being somewhat awkward, it is not always easy for me to.
This sometimes makes first dates a daunting proposition. People go on dates mainly to see if they click with each other, and to figure out if there is any potential for a liaison or a relationship. Being somewhat awkward, it is not always easy for me to see how these things are going in the moment. Fortunately, I have math on my side, and a tool that will let me update and re-evaluate the odds that my date is going well, based on the events of the date.
That tool is called Bayes’ Theorem. Bayes’ Theorem might be the coolest thing in probability theory. It gives us a way to rigorously combine an initial degree of belief in a proposition A with new evidence E that goes for or against that proposition. For our purposes of seeing how the date is going, A is going to be the proposition that my date is into me, and E will be various events that happen during the date that will affect my estimate of the likelihood of A.
This post will teach you how to incorporate events that happen during your date into figuring out whether the date is going well and likely to lead to something more.
Dating for bayesians heres how to use statistics to improve
Harold Jeffreys 1 p This is the second of two posts on P-values. Broad considers the problem of drawing counters from an urn containing n counters and supposes that all m drawn had been observed to be white. He now considers two very different questions, which have two very different probabilities and writes: The practical implication of this just because Bayesian induction implies that a large sequence of successes and no failures supports belief that the next trial will be a success, it does not follow that one should believe that all future trials will be so.
This Business Insider article aims to explain how to figure out how well a date is going by using Bayes Theorem. In class we learned that Bayes Theorem is a probability “model of decision-making under uncertainty” and this rule can be applied to dating. Sometimes it’s hard to gauge if the date is going well.
This book is an introduction to machine learning; it’s an introduction to a world that actually we’re all immersed in without realizing it, most of us, as well as its implications for our lives and the future of humanity. It’s a really fascinating book. We’re going to go through its main ideas today. Let’s start with the most basic one: What is machine learning? Machine learning is computers programming themselves instead of having to be programmed by us.
In the first stage of the information age we had to tell computers what to do, right?
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The following question was recently asked of our statistical training instructors. Terry Woodfield , along with Bob Lucas took the time to write this eloquent and easily digestible answer. I’m trying to get a general — very general — understanding what the Bayes theorem is, and is used for. Can anyone give me a simple definition of the Bayes theorem — and by simple I mean really simple, like if you were trying to explain it to an above-average squirrel.
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Direct dating of pottery from its organic residues: Retrieved Nov 09 from https: Direct radiocarbon dating of pottery is relatively uncommon due to the presence of carbon sources with differing ages, for example geological carbon remaining in the clay after firing, added organic temper, carbon from the fuel of the kiln and exogenous contaminants absorbed from the burial environment–although most of these substances have been dated De Atley ; Gabasio et al. An increasingly wide range of organic commodities has been identified from lipidic components of archaeological pottery, including those derived from beeswax Charters et al.
These are readily identified by the dominance of [C. The origins of these degraded animal fat residues can be classified further through compound-specific stable carbon isotope determinations [delta][sup. Furthermore, by exploiting differences in the biochemical sources of their [C. Using techniques first applied to sedimentary lipids Eglinton et al. We reasoned that lipids absorbed within pottery are excellent candidates for routine [sup.